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Genoa vs Spal — Serie B 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Spal
Spal
2/25/2023Serie BSerie B · Round 26Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Genoa53%
×Draw28%
Spal20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.40
Spal
0.73

Genoa creates 92% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 60 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.53
Spal
0.92

allows per match

Genoa
0.53
Spal
1.27

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Spal+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Spal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
17%83%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
80%
Genoa or Spal
72%
Draw or Spal
47%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
26%
Spal wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
75%
Genoa 2+ goals
41%
Genoa 3+ goals
17%
Spal 1+ goals
52%
Spal 2+ goals
17%
Spal 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
73%
Spal (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.53, concedes 0.53 · 19 matches

Spal away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.27 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.53 + Spal defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.40

Spal attack 0.92 + Genoa defence 0.53 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Genoa scores more
53%
level
28%
Spal scores more
20%

Genoa at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genoa vs Spal

Genoa beat Spal 3-0 in Serie B on February 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.