Genoa 1–4 Parma: Result & Stats | Serie A

Genoa

FT

1 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Parma

I. Falque 59' (pen)

D. Kulusevski 87'

A. Cornelius 53', 33', 18'

6/23/2020

Serie A · Round 27Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 26+ matches

Genoa46%

×Draw27%

Parma27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenoaExpected goals in this matchParma

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.00

Genoa

1.39

Parma

1.00

Genoa creates 39% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 26 away

1.18

creates per match

0.80

1.21

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Genoa

1.18

Parma

0.80

allows per match

Genoa

1.21

Parma

1.60

-0.03on par

finishing

-0.11scores less than expected

finishing

Genoa-0.03on par

Parma-0.11scores less

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Parma →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Genoa or draw

73%

Genoa or Parma

73%

Draw or Parma

54%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+

22%

Parma wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals

75%

Genoa 2+ goals

40%

Genoa 3+ goals

16%

Parma 1+ goals

63%

Parma 2+ goals

26%

Parma 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)

63%

Parma (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.18, concedes 1.21 · 27 matches

Parma away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.60 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.18 + Parma defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.39

Parma attack 0.80 + Genoa defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Genoa scores more

46%

level

27%

Parma scores more

27%

Genoa at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

11

Andreas Cornelius

Parma · F

10.0

Match Events

18'

A. Cornelius

28'

S. Iacoponi

29'

D. CriscitoMissed penalty

32'

F. Cassata

33'

A. Cornelius↳ V. Laurini

46'

F. Cassata← I. Falque

53'

A. Cornelius↳ V. Laurini

58'

D. Criscito← V. Behrami

58'

G. Pandev← A. Pinamonti

59'

V. Laurini

59'

I. FalquePenalty

63'

Hernani← J. Kucka

67'

A. Favilli← M. Destro

67'

V. Laurini← M. Darmian

68'

Gervinho← A. Barilla

73'

A. Masiello← A. Barreca

79'

B. Alves← K. Dermaku

79'

G. Brugman← M. Scozzarella

87'

D. Kulusevski↳ A. Cornelius

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenoaParma

Overview

56%Possession44%

13Total Shots17

1Corners3

15Fouls15

Shots

13Total Shots17

3On Target7

6Off Target7

4Blocked3

9Inside Box15

4Outside Box2

Passing

56%Possession44%

532Total Passes411

457Accurate Passes339

86%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

Serie A: Genoa 1–4 Parma

Parma beat Genoa 4-1 in Serie A on June 23, 2020.

Goals: A. Cornelius (18', 33', 53'), I. Falque (59' pen), D. Kulusevski (87').

Genoa controlled possession (56%) and registered 13 shots to 17.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.

Genoa vs Parma — Serie A 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Serie A: Genoa 1–4 Parma