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Genoa vs Brescia — Serie A 2018

Genoa
Genoa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Brescia
Brescia
10/26/2019Serie ASerie A · Round 9Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 19+ matches

Genoa55%
×Draw23%
Brescia22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa
1.78
Brescia
1.04

Genoa creates 71% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 19 away

creates per match

Genoa
1.19
Brescia
0.74

allows per match

Genoa
1.35
Brescia
2.37

finishing

Genoa+0.00on par
Brescia+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa ↓

Brescia →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Genoa or draw
78%
Genoa or Brescia
77%
Draw or Brescia
45%

Winning margin

Genoa wins by 2+
31%
Brescia wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Genoa 1+ goals
83%
Genoa 2+ goals
53%
Genoa 3+ goals
26%
Brescia 1+ goals
65%
Brescia 2+ goals
28%
Brescia 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Genoa (draw refunded)
71%
Brescia (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa at home — creates 1.19, concedes 1.35 · 119 matches

Brescia away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.37 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa attack 1.19 + Brescia defence 2.37 → ÷2 → 1.78

Brescia attack 0.74 + Genoa defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Genoa scores more
55%
level
23%
Brescia scores more
22%

Genoa at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Genoa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Serie A: Genoa 3–1 Brescia

Genoa beat Brescia 3-1 in Serie A on October 26, 2019.

The match was played at Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris in Genova.