Genoa U20 3–1 Milan U20: Result & Stats

Genoa U20

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Milan U20

8/31/2024

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 3Stadio La Sciorba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2038%

×Draw25%

Milan U2037%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genoa U20Expected goals in this matchMilan U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.48

1.46

Genoa U20

1.48

Milan U20

1.46

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

1.58

creates per match

1.38

1.55

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Genoa U20

1.58

Milan U20

1.38

allows per match

Genoa U20

1.55

Milan U20

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par

Milan U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Milan U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw

63%

Genoa U20 or Milan U20

75%

Draw or Milan U20

62%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+

18%

Milan U20 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals

77%

Genoa U20 2+ goals

43%

Genoa U20 3+ goals

19%

Milan U20 1+ goals

77%

Milan U20 2+ goals

43%

Milan U20 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Milan U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Milan U20 away — creates 1.38, concedes 1.38 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Milan U20 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.48

Milan U20 attack 1.38 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Genoa U20 scores more

38%

level

25%

Milan U20 scores more

37%

Genoa U20 at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff