Genoa U20 vs Fiorentina U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 38+ matches
Genoa U2036%
Fiorentina U2040%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 38 home / 39 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over59
- Under41
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes61
- No39
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Genoa U20 ↓
Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches
Fiorentina U20 away — creates 1.62, concedes 1.36 · 39 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Fiorentina U20 defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.47
Fiorentina U20 attack 1.62 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.58
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
Fiorentina U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "Fiorentina U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Genoa U20 substitutes
Fiorentina U20 substitutes
Head to Head
Sampdoria U19
Internazionale U19
Juventus U19
Roma U19
Atalanta U19
Empoli U19
SPAL U19
Sassuolo U19
Genoa U19
Milan U19
Cagliari U19
Fiorentina U19
Torino U19
Bologna U19
Lazio U19
Ascoli U19If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Genoa U20 host Fiorentina U20 on Monday, 23 September 2024 at 16:30. The match is part of the Campionato Primavera - 1 2020/2021 season.
Campionato Primavera - 1: Genoa U20 3–2 Fiorentina U20
Genoa U20 beat Fiorentina U20 3-2 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 23, 2024.
Goals: R. Braschi (32'), M. Ievoli (56'), T. Vannucchi (58' o.g.), T. Ghirardello (76', 82').
The match was played at Stadio La Sciorba in Genova.