Genoa U20 3–4 Cesena U20: Result & Stats

Genoa U20

FT

3 – 4

HT: 2 – 2

Cesena U20

5/11/2025

Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 37Stadio La Sciorba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2040%

×Draw23%

Cesena U2038%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genoa U20Expected goals in this matchCesena U20

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.70

1.65

Genoa U20

1.70

Cesena U20

1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 39 away

1.58

creates per match

1.74

1.55

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Genoa U20

1.58

Cesena U20

1.74

allows per match

Genoa U20

1.55

Cesena U20

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par

Cesena U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Cesena U20 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw

62%

Genoa U20 or Cesena U20

77%

Draw or Cesena U20

60%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+

20%

Cesena U20 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals

82%

Genoa U20 2+ goals

51%

Genoa U20 3+ goals

24%

Cesena U20 1+ goals

81%

Cesena U20 2+ goals

49%

Cesena U20 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)

51%

Cesena U20 (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Cesena U20 away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.82 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Cesena U20 defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.70

Cesena U20 attack 1.74 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Genoa U20 scores more

40%

level

23%

Cesena U20 scores more

38%

Genoa U20 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff