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Genoa U20 vs Bologna U20 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U20
Genoa U20
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Bologna U20
Bologna U20
10/3/2025Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 7Stadio La Sciorba

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Genoa U2037%
×Draw26%
Bologna U2037%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U20
1.34
Bologna U20
1.33

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 38 home / 40 away

creates per match

Genoa U20
1.58
Bologna U20
1.10

allows per match

Genoa U20
1.55
Bologna U20
1.10

finishing

Genoa U20+0.00on par
Bologna U20+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U20 ↓

Bologna U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Genoa U20 or draw
63%
Genoa U20 or Bologna U20
74%
Draw or Bologna U20
63%

Winning margin

Genoa U20 wins by 2+
17%
Bologna U20 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genoa U20 1+ goals
74%
Genoa U20 2+ goals
39%
Genoa U20 3+ goals
15%
Bologna U20 1+ goals
74%
Bologna U20 2+ goals
38%
Bologna U20 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Genoa U20 (draw refunded)
50%
Bologna U20 (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U20 at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.55 · 38 matches

Bologna U20 away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.10 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U20 attack 1.58 + Bologna U20 defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bologna U20 attack 1.10 + Genoa U20 defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genoa U20 scores more
37%
level
26%
Bologna U20 scores more
37%

Genoa U20 at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Genoa U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genoa U20 vs Bologna U20

Genoa U20 beat Bologna U20 1-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on October 3, 2025.

The match was played at Stadio La Sciorba in Genoa.