Genoa U19 2–1 SPAL U19: Result & Stats

Genoa U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

SPAL U19

3/18/2023

Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 23Stadio Nazario Gambino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Genoa U1952%

×Draw24%

SPAL U1924%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genoa U19Expected goals in this matchSPAL U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.67

1.05

Genoa U19

1.67

SPAL U19

1.05

Genoa U19 creates 59% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

2.06

creates per match

1.35

0.75

allows per match

1.28

creates per match

Genoa U19

2.06

SPAL U19

1.35

allows per match

Genoa U19

0.75

SPAL U19

1.28

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par

SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw

76%

Genoa U19 or SPAL U19

76%

Draw or SPAL U19

48%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+

28%

SPAL U19 wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals

81%

Genoa U19 2+ goals

50%

Genoa U19 3+ goals

23%

SPAL U19 1+ goals

65%

SPAL U19 2+ goals

28%

SPAL U19 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)

68%

SPAL U19 (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.35, concedes 1.28 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 2.06 + SPAL U19 defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.67

SPAL U19 attack 1.35 + Genoa U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Genoa U19 scores more

52%

level

24%

SPAL U19 scores more

24%

Genoa U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff