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Genoa U19 vs SPAL U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U19
Genoa U19
FT
1 – 1
SPAL U19
SPAL U19
9/19/2020Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 1Campo Sportivo Begato 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Genoa U1951%
×Draw23%
SPAL U1926%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U19
1.80
SPAL U19
1.23

Genoa U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 32 away

creates per match

Genoa U19
1.60
SPAL U19
1.22

allows per match

Genoa U19
1.24
SPAL U19
2.00

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par
SPAL U19+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

SPAL U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw
74%
Genoa U19 or SPAL U19
77%
Draw or SPAL U19
49%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+
28%
SPAL U19 wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals
83%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
54%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
27%
SPAL U19 1+ goals
71%
SPAL U19 2+ goals
35%
SPAL U19 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
66%
SPAL U19 (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

SPAL U19 away — creates 1.22, concedes 2.00 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 1.60 + SPAL U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.80

SPAL U19 attack 1.22 + Genoa U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Genoa U19 scores more
51%
level
23%
SPAL U19 scores more
26%

Genoa U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Genoa U19 1–1 SPAL U19

Genoa U19 and SPAL U19 drew 1-1 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on September 19, 2020.

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Begato 9 in Genova.