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Genoa U19 vs Pescara U19 — Campionato Primavera - 1 2020

Genoa U19
Genoa U19
FT
6 – 0
Pescara U19
Pescara U19
B. Sahli 82'
F. Colazzilli 70' (OG)
M. Besaggio 50' (pen)
N. Boiga 45'
A. Bamba 30'
E. Gjini 9'
8/28/2021Campionato Primavera - 1Campionato Primavera - 1 · Round 1Campo Sportivo Begato 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Genoa U1961%
×Draw20%
Pescara U1919%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U19
2.16
Pescara U19
1.12

Genoa U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 17 away

creates per match

Genoa U19
1.60
Pescara U19
1.00

allows per match

Genoa U19
1.24
Pescara U19
2.71

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par
Pescara U19+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

Pescara U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw
81%
Genoa U19 or Pescara U19
80%
Draw or Pescara U19
39%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+
38%
Pescara U19 wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals
88%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
63%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
36%
Pescara U19 1+ goals
67%
Pescara U19 2+ goals
31%
Pescara U19 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
76%
Pescara U19 (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 1.60, concedes 1.24 · 50 matches

Pescara U19 away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.71 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 1.60 + Pescara U19 defence 2.71 → ÷2 → 2.16

Pescara U19 attack 1.00 + Genoa U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Genoa U19 scores more
61%
level
20%
Pescara U19 scores more
19%

Genoa U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'
P. Scipione
9'
E. Gjini
13'
P. Vassallo← P. Vassallo
30'
A. Bamba
34'
E. Sadiku
45'
N. Boiga
46'
L. Galfano← L. Galfano
46'
M. Delle Monache← M. Delle Monache
50'
M. BesaggioPenalty
54'
D. Mehic← D. Mehic
55'
M. Dagasso← M. Dagasso
59'
B. Sahli← B. Sahli
60'
L. Lipani← L. Lipani
70'
F. ColazzilliOwn goal
71'
S. Salvatore← S. Salvatore
75'
A. Bornosuzov← A. Bornosuzov
76'
D. Ghigliotti← D. Ghigliotti
82'
B. Sahli

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Campionato Primavera - 1: Genoa U19 6–0 Pescara U19

Genoa U19 beat Pescara U19 6-0 in Campionato Primavera - 1 on August 28, 2021.

Goals: E. Gjini (9'), A. Bamba (30'), N. Boiga (45'), M. Besaggio (50' pen), F. Colazzilli (70' o.g.), B. Sahli (82').

The match was played at Campo Sportivo Begato 9 in Genova.