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Genoa U19 vs FeralpiSalò U19 — Campionato Primavera - 2 2020

Genoa U19
Genoa U19
FT
3 – 0
FeralpiSalò U19
FeralpiSalò U19
2/18/2023Campionato Primavera - 2Campionato Primavera - 2 · Group A - 19Stadio Nazario Gambino

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Genoa U1967%
×Draw20%
FeralpiSalò U1913%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genoa U19
2.09
FeralpiSalò U19
0.80

Genoa U19 creates 161% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 46 away

creates per match

Genoa U19
2.06
FeralpiSalò U19
0.85

allows per match

Genoa U19
0.75
FeralpiSalò U19
2.13

finishing

Genoa U19+0.00on par
FeralpiSalò U19+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genoa U19 ↓

FeralpiSalò U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Genoa U19 or draw
87%
Genoa U19 or FeralpiSalò U19
80%
Draw or FeralpiSalò U19
33%

Winning margin

Genoa U19 wins by 2+
42%
FeralpiSalò U19 wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Genoa U19 1+ goals
88%
Genoa U19 2+ goals
62%
Genoa U19 3+ goals
34%
FeralpiSalò U19 1+ goals
55%
FeralpiSalò U19 2+ goals
19%
FeralpiSalò U19 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Genoa U19 (draw refunded)
83%
FeralpiSalò U19 (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genoa U19 at home — creates 2.06, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

FeralpiSalò U19 away — creates 0.85, concedes 2.13 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genoa U19 attack 2.06 + FeralpiSalò U19 defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 2.09

FeralpiSalò U19 attack 0.85 + Genoa U19 defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 67%?"

Genoa U19 scores more
67%
level
20%
FeralpiSalò U19 scores more
13%

Genoa U19 at 67% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 67% does not mean "Genoa U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genoa U19 vs FeralpiSalò U19

Genoa U19 beat FeralpiSalò U19 3-0 in Campionato Primavera - 2 on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Stadio Nazario Gambino in Arenzano.