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Genk W vs Mechelen W — Super League Women 2018

Genk W
Genk W
FT
4 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Mechelen W
Mechelen W
10/28/2022Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 9Sportcomplex Zwartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Genk W62%
×Draw19%
Mechelen W19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk W
2.31
Mechelen W
1.21

Genk W creates 91% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 26 away

creates per match

Genk W
1.84
Mechelen W
1.00

allows per match

Genk W
1.43
Mechelen W
2.77

finishing

Genk W+0.00on par
Mechelen W+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk W ↓

Mechelen W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Genk W or draw
81%
Genk W or Mechelen W
81%
Draw or Mechelen W
38%

Winning margin

Genk W wins by 2+
39%
Mechelen W wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Genk W 1+ goals
90%
Genk W 2+ goals
67%
Genk W 3+ goals
40%
Mechelen W 1+ goals
70%
Mechelen W 2+ goals
34%
Mechelen W 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Genk W (draw refunded)
76%
Mechelen W (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 102 matches

Mechelen W away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.77 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk W attack 1.84 + Mechelen W defence 2.77 → ÷2 → 2.31

Mechelen W attack 1.00 + Genk W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Genk W scores more
62%
level
19%
Mechelen W scores more
19%

Genk W at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Genk W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Genk W 4–0 Mechelen W

Genk W beat Mechelen W 4-0 in Super League Women on October 28, 2022.

The match was played at Sportcomplex Zwartberg in Genk.