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Genk W vs Anderlecht W — Super League Women 2018

Genk W
Genk W
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Anderlecht W
Anderlecht W
11/23/2025Super League WomenSuper League Women · Round 10

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Genk W25%
×Draw21%
Anderlecht W54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk W
1.34
Anderlecht W
2.08

Anderlecht W creates 55% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

creates per match

Genk W
1.84
Anderlecht W
2.72

allows per match

Genk W
1.43
Anderlecht W
0.84

finishing

Genk W+0.00on par
Anderlecht W+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk W ↓

Anderlecht W →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
26%74%

Double chance

Genk W or draw
46%
Genk W or Anderlecht W
79%
Draw or Anderlecht W
75%

Winning margin

Genk W wins by 2+
10%
Anderlecht W wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Genk W 1+ goals
74%
Genk W 2+ goals
39%
Genk W 3+ goals
15%
Anderlecht W 1+ goals
87%
Anderlecht W 2+ goals
61%
Anderlecht W 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Genk W (draw refunded)
31%
Anderlecht W (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk W at home — creates 1.84, concedes 1.43 · 102 matches

Anderlecht W away — creates 2.72, concedes 0.84 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk W attack 1.84 + Anderlecht W defence 0.84 → ÷2 → 1.34

Anderlecht W attack 2.72 + Genk W defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Genk W scores more
25%
level
21%
Anderlecht W scores more
54%

Anderlecht W at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Anderlecht W will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Super League Women: Genk W 1–3 Anderlecht W

Anderlecht W beat Genk W 3-1 in Super League Women on November 23, 2025.