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Genk vs SC Paderborn 07 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Genk
Genk
FT
1 – 2
SC Paderborn 07
SC Paderborn 07
1/11/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 5Campo 2 La Nucía

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Genk60%
×Draw19%
SC Paderborn 0721%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
2.42
SC Paderborn 07
1.38

Genk creates 75% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 9 away

creates per match

Genk
2.83
SC Paderborn 07
1.33

allows per match

Genk
1.42
SC Paderborn 07
2.00

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
SC Paderborn 07+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

SC Paderborn 07 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Genk or draw
79%
Genk or SC Paderborn 07
81%
Draw or SC Paderborn 07
40%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
39%
SC Paderborn 07 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
91%
Genk 2+ goals
69%
Genk 3+ goals
43%
SC Paderborn 07 1+ goals
75%
SC Paderborn 07 2+ goals
40%
SC Paderborn 07 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
74%
SC Paderborn 07 (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

SC Paderborn 07 away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 2.83 + SC Paderborn 07 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.42

SC Paderborn 07 attack 1.33 + Genk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Genk scores more
60%
level
19%
SC Paderborn 07 scores more
21%

Genk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Genk vs SC Paderborn 07

SC Paderborn 07 beat Genk 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 11, 2024.

The match was played at Campo 2 La Nucía in La Nucía.