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Genk vs RWDM — Friendlies Clubs 2026

Genk
Genk
FT
3 – 2
RWDM
RWDM
8/10/2020Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Genk60%
×Draw18%
RWDM23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
2.79
RWDM
1.71

Genk creates 63% more chances

Season form · 12 home / 8 away

creates per match

Genk
2.83
RWDM
2.00

allows per match

Genk
1.42
RWDM
2.75

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
RWDM+0.00on par

Total goals

82%Over
  • Over82
  • Under18

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

77%Yes
  • Yes77
  • No23

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

RWDM →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–03%
1–15%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 85% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
94%6%2.5
82%18%3.5
65%35%4.5
45%55%

Double chance

Genk or draw
77%
Genk or RWDM
82%
Draw or RWDM
40%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
40%
RWDM wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
94%
Genk 2+ goals
76%
Genk 3+ goals
52%
RWDM 1+ goals
82%
RWDM 2+ goals
51%
RWDM 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
72%
RWDM (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
71%
Both score & under 3
5%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 2.83, concedes 1.42 · 12 matches

RWDM away — creates 2.00, concedes 2.75 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 2.83 + RWDM defence 2.75 → ÷2 → 2.79

RWDM attack 2.00 + Genk defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Genk scores more
60%
level
18%
RWDM scores more
23%

Genk at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: Genk 3–2 RWDM

Genk beat RWDM 3-2 in Friendlies Clubs on August 10, 2020.

The match was played at Luminus Arena in Genk.