Genk 1–4 Red Bull Salzburg: Result & Stats

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchRed Bull Salzburg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.35

2.00

Genk

1.35

Red Bull Salzburg

2.00

Red Bull Salzburg creates 48% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 20 away

0.75

creates per match

1.50

2.50

allows per match

1.95

creates per match

Genk

0.75

Red Bull Salzburg

1.50

allows per match

Genk

2.50

Red Bull Salzburg

1.95

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genk+0.00on par

Red Bull Salzburg+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Red Bull Salzburg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–16%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Genk or draw

48%

Genk or Red Bull Salzburg

78%

Draw or Red Bull Salzburg

74%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

11%

Red Bull Salzburg wins by 2+

30%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

74%

Genk 2+ goals

39%

Genk 3+ goals

15%

Red Bull Salzburg 1+ goals

86%

Red Bull Salzburg 2+ goals

59%

Red Bull Salzburg 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

33%

Red Bull Salzburg (draw refunded)

67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Red Bull Salzburg away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.95 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 0.75 + Red Bull Salzburg defence 1.95 → ÷2 → 1.35

Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.50 + Genk defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Genk scores more

26%

level

22%

Red Bull Salzburg scores more

52%

Red Bull Salzburg at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Red Bull Salzburg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

45

E. Mwepu

Red Bull Salzburg · M

8.3

Match Events

21'

Zlatko Junuzović

43'

P. Daka

45'

T. Minamino↳ E. Mwepu

46'

Rasmus Kristensen

59'

P. Onuachu← P. Hrošovský

62'

E. Håland← P. Daka

65'

T. Bongonda← J. Paintsil

69'

Hwang Hee-Chan↳ E. Håland

74'

Mbwana Samatta

79'

I. Hagi← J. Ito

80'

M. Okugawa← D. Szoboszlai

85'

M. Samatta

87'

E. Håland↳ E. Mwepu

89'

A. Vallci← T. Minamino

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenkRed

Overview

48%Possession52%

14Total Shots18

7Corners8

10Fouls17

Shots

14Total Shots18

5On Target6

3Off Target8

6Blocked4

5Inside Box13

9Outside Box5

Passing

48%Possession52%

392Total Passes430

290Accurate Passes326

74%Pass Accuracy76%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

10Fouls17

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides3