Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Genk vs Napoli — UEFA Champions League 2026

Genk
Genk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Napoli
Napoli
10/2/2019UEFA Champions LeagueUEFA Champions League · Group Stage - 2Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Genk23%
×Draw22%
Napoli55%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.16
Napoli
1.92

Napoli creates 66% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 18 away

creates per match

Genk
0.75
Napoli
1.33

allows per match

Genk
2.50
Napoli
1.56

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Napoli+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Napoli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–29%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Genk or draw
45%
Genk or Napoli
78%
Draw or Napoli
77%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
9%
Napoli wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
69%
Genk 2+ goals
32%
Genk 3+ goals
11%
Napoli 1+ goals
85%
Napoli 2+ goals
57%
Napoli 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
29%
Napoli (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 0.75, concedes 2.50 · 4 matches

Napoli away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.56 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 0.75 + Napoli defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.16

Napoli attack 1.33 + Genk defence 2.50 → ÷2 → 1.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Genk scores more
23%
level
22%
Napoli scores more
55%

Napoli at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Napoli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genk 0 – 0 Napoli

Genk and Napoli drew 0-0 in UEFA Champions League on October 2, 2019.

The match was played at Luminus Arena in Genk.