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Genk vs Gent — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gent
Gent
3/30/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 1Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Genk49%
×Draw23%
Gent27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.78
Gent
1.27

Genk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

creates per match

Genk
1.79
Gent
1.46

allows per match

Genk
1.07
Gent
1.77

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less
Gent-0.29scores less

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Gent →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Genk or draw
73%
Genk or Gent
77%
Draw or Gent
51%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
27%
Gent wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
83%
Genk 2+ goals
53%
Genk 3+ goals
26%
Gent 1+ goals
72%
Gent 2+ goals
36%
Gent 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
64%
Gent (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Gent away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.77 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Gent defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.78

Gent attack 1.46 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Genk scores more
49%
level
23%
Gent scores more
27%

Genk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Genk 4 – 0 Gent

Genk beat Gent 4-0 in Jupiler Pro League on March 30, 2025.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.