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Genk vs Fiorentina — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Genk
Genk
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Fiorentina
Fiorentina
9/21/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 1Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Genk37%
×Draw26%
Fiorentina36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.32
Fiorentina
1.30

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 27 away

creates per match

Genk
1.50
Fiorentina
1.85

allows per match

Genk
0.75
Fiorentina
1.15

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Fiorentina+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Fiorentina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Genk or draw
64%
Genk or Fiorentina
74%
Draw or Fiorentina
63%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
17%
Fiorentina wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
73%
Genk 2+ goals
38%
Genk 3+ goals
15%
Fiorentina 1+ goals
73%
Fiorentina 2+ goals
37%
Fiorentina 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
51%
Fiorentina (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Fiorentina away — creates 1.85, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.50 + Fiorentina defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.32

Fiorentina attack 1.85 + Genk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Genk scores more
37%
level
26%
Fiorentina scores more
36%

Genk at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Genk 2–2 Fiorentina

Genk and Fiorentina drew 2-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on September 21, 2023.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.