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Genk vs Ferencvarosi TC — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Genk
Genk
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Ferencvarosi TC
Ferencvarosi TC
10/26/2023UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · Group Stage - 3Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Genk27%
×Draw26%
Ferencvarosi TC47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.10
Ferencvarosi TC
1.52

Ferencvarosi TC creates 38% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 7 away

creates per match

Genk
1.50
Ferencvarosi TC
2.29

allows per match

Genk
0.75
Ferencvarosi TC
0.71

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Ferencvarosi TC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Ferencvarosi TC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Genk or draw
53%
Genk or Ferencvarosi TC
74%
Draw or Ferencvarosi TC
73%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
11%
Ferencvarosi TC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
67%
Genk 2+ goals
30%
Genk 3+ goals
10%
Ferencvarosi TC 1+ goals
78%
Ferencvarosi TC 2+ goals
45%
Ferencvarosi TC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
37%
Ferencvarosi TC (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.50, concedes 0.75 · 4 matches

Ferencvarosi TC away — creates 2.29, concedes 0.71 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.50 + Ferencvarosi TC defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Ferencvarosi TC attack 2.29 + Genk defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Genk scores more
27%
level
26%
Ferencvarosi TC scores more
47%

Ferencvarosi TC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ferencvarosi TC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa Conference League: Genk 0–0 Ferencvarosi TC

Genk and Ferencvarosi TC drew 0-0 in UEFA Europa Conference League on October 26, 2023.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.