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Genk vs Dinamo Zagreb — UEFA Europa League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Dinamo Zagreb
Dinamo Zagreb
9/30/2021UEFA Europa LeagueUEFA Europa League · Group H - 2Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Genk43%
×Draw26%
Dinamo Zagreb32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.48
Dinamo Zagreb
1.23

Genk creates 20% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 18 away

creates per match

Genk
1.75
Dinamo Zagreb
1.33

allows per match

Genk
1.13
Dinamo Zagreb
1.22

finishing

Genk+0.00on par
Dinamo Zagreb+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Dinamo Zagreb →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Genk or draw
68%
Genk or Dinamo Zagreb
74%
Draw or Dinamo Zagreb
57%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
21%
Dinamo Zagreb wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
77%
Genk 2+ goals
43%
Genk 3+ goals
19%
Dinamo Zagreb 1+ goals
71%
Dinamo Zagreb 2+ goals
35%
Dinamo Zagreb 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
58%
Dinamo Zagreb (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.75, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

Dinamo Zagreb away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.22 · 18 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.75 + Dinamo Zagreb defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.48

Dinamo Zagreb attack 1.33 + Genk defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Genk scores more
43%
level
26%
Dinamo Zagreb scores more
32%

Genk at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

UEFA Europa League: Genk 0–3 Dinamo Zagreb

Dinamo Zagreb beat Genk 3-0 in UEFA Europa League on September 30, 2021.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.