Genk 1–1 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Cercle Brugge

4/13/2024

Jupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 3Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 23+ matches

Genk47%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.26

Genk

1.66

Cercle Brugge

1.26

Genk creates 32% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 23 away

1.79

creates per match

1.45

1.07

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Genk

1.79

Cercle Brugge

1.45

allows per match

Genk

1.07

Cercle Brugge

1.53

-0.47scores less than expected

finishing

-0.10scores less than expected

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less

Cercle Brugge-0.10scores less

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Genk or draw

71%

Genk or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

53%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

24%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

81%

Genk 2+ goals

49%

Genk 3+ goals

23%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

72%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

36%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

13%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

62%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.53 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cercle Brugge attack 1.45 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Genk scores more

47%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

29%

Genk at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff