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Cercle Brugge vs Genk — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 2
Genk
Genk
9/14/2024Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 7Jan Breydelstadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 20+ matches

Cercle Brugge40%
×Draw24%
Genk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cercle Brugge
1.58
Genk
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

creates per match

Cercle Brugge
1.62
Genk
1.42

allows per match

Cercle Brugge
1.53
Genk
1.54

finishing

Cercle Brugge-0.27scores less
Genk+0.10scores more

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cercle Brugge ↓

Genk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Cercle Brugge or draw
64%
Cercle Brugge or Genk
76%
Draw or Genk
60%

Winning margin

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
20%
Genk wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
79%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
47%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
21%
Genk 1+ goals
77%
Genk 2+ goals
43%
Genk 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
53%
Genk (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cercle Brugge at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.53 · 20 matches

Genk away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.54 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cercle Brugge attack 1.62 + Genk defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Genk attack 1.42 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Cercle Brugge scores more
40%
level
24%
Genk scores more
36%

Cercle Brugge at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Cercle Brugge will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Jupiler Pro League: Cercle Brugge 2–3 Genk

Genk beat Cercle Brugge 3-2 in Jupiler Pro League on September 14, 2024.

The match was played at Jan Breydelstadion in Brugge.