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Genk vs Cercle Brugge — Jupiler Pro League 2026

Genk
Genk
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Cercle Brugge
Cercle Brugge
T. Bongonda 89'
T. Somers 38'
11/7/2021Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Round 14Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genk46%
×Draw24%
Cercle Brugge30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.66
Cercle Brugge
1.30

Genk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

creates per match

Genk
1.82
Cercle Brugge
1.53

allows per match

Genk
1.07
Cercle Brugge
1.49

finishing

Genk-0.41scores less
Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Cercle Brugge →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Genk or draw
70%
Genk or Cercle Brugge
76%
Draw or Cercle Brugge
54%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
24%
Cercle Brugge wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
81%
Genk 2+ goals
49%
Genk 3+ goals
23%
Cercle Brugge 1+ goals
73%
Cercle Brugge 2+ goals
37%
Cercle Brugge 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
60%
Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.82 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Genk scores more
46%
level
24%
Cercle Brugge scores more
30%

Genk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

26
M. VandevoordtGenkGenk · G
7.9

Match Events

25'
Hannes Van Der BruggenGoal cancelled
38'
T. Somers↳ D. Hotič
46'
I. Ugbo← P. Onuachu
46'
Á. Preciado← D. Muñoz
58'
T. Bongonda← J. Paintsil
58'
M. Trésor← B. Toma
63'
Ike Ugbo
73'
O. Deman← Álex Millán
82'
K. Denkey← T. Somers
88'
L. Oyen← K. Thorstvedt
88'
C. Vanhoutte← D. Hotič
89'
T. Bongonda↳ Á. Preciado

Possession

62%Genk

Shots

8Genk

Pass accuracy

53%Genk

Statistics

GenkCercle
Overview
62%Possession38%
8Total Shots17
5Corners6
18Fouls13
Shots
8Total Shots17
4On Target7
3Off Target8
1Blocked2
6Inside Box15
2Outside Box2
Passing
62%Possession38%
510Total Passes304
412Accurate Passes217
81%Pass Accuracy71%
Goalkeeping
6Saves3
Discipline
18Fouls13
1Yellow Cards0
1Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 1–1 Cercle Brugge

Genk and Cercle Brugge drew 1-1 in Jupiler Pro League on November 7, 2021.

Goals: T. Somers (38'), T. Bongonda (89').

Genk controlled possession (62%) and registered 8 shots to 17.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.