Genk 2–0 Cercle Brugge: Result & Stats

Genk

FT

2 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Cercle Brugge

J. Ito 24'

P. Onuachu 9'

3/7/2021

Jupiler Pro League · Round 29Luminus Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 27+ matches

Genk46%

×Draw24%

Cercle Brugge30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GenkExpected goals in this matchCercle Brugge

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.66

1.30

Genk

1.66

Cercle Brugge

1.30

Genk creates 28% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 30 away

1.82

creates per match

1.53

1.07

allows per match

1.49

creates per match

Genk

1.82

Cercle Brugge

1.53

allows per match

Genk

1.07

Cercle Brugge

1.49

-0.41scores less than expected

finishing

-0.20scores less than expected

finishing

Genk-0.41scores less

Cercle Brugge-0.20scores less

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Cercle Brugge →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Genk or draw

70%

Genk or Cercle Brugge

76%

Draw or Cercle Brugge

54%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+

24%

Cercle Brugge wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals

81%

Genk 2+ goals

49%

Genk 3+ goals

23%

Cercle Brugge 1+ goals

73%

Cercle Brugge 2+ goals

37%

Cercle Brugge 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)

60%

Cercle Brugge (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.07 · 27 matches

Cercle Brugge away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.49 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.82 + Cercle Brugge defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.66

Cercle Brugge attack 1.53 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Genk scores more

46%

level

24%

Cercle Brugge scores more

30%

Genk at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

T. Bongonda

Genk · F

8.2

Match Events

9'

P. Onuachu↳ T. Bongonda

20'

Jean Marcelin

24'

J. Ito↳ B. Heynen

27'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

37'

Bryan Heynen

39'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

39'

Hannes Van Der Bruggen

46'

A. Musaba← K. Denkey

66'

C. Dessers← P. Onuachu

69'

K. Hoggas← O. Deman

79'

B. Toma← K. Thorstvedt

79'

D. Hotič← I. Ugbo

79'

C. Vanhoutte← J. Marcelin

87'

Strahinja Pavlović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GenkCercle

Overview

65%Possession35%

15Total Shots7

8Corners2

9Fouls17

Shots

15Total Shots7

8On Target1

5Off Target4

2Blocked2

10Inside Box6

5Outside Box1

Passing

65%Possession35%

629Total Passes323

572Accurate Passes249

91%Pass Accuracy77%

Goalkeeping

1Saves6

Discipline

9Fouls17

1Yellow Cards4

0Red Cards1

2Offsides0