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Genk vs Antwerp — Jupiler Pro League 2018

Genk
Genk
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Antwerp
Antwerp
T. Chery 35' (pen)
4/27/2025Jupiler Pro LeagueJupiler Pro League · Championship Round - 6Cegeka Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 15+ matches

Genk49%
×Draw24%
Antwerp27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk
1.68
Antwerp
1.20

Genk creates 40% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 15 away

creates per match

Genk
1.79
Antwerp
1.32

allows per match

Genk
1.07
Antwerp
1.56

finishing

Genk-0.47scores less
Antwerp-0.39scores less

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk ↓

Antwerp →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Genk or draw
73%
Genk or Antwerp
76%
Draw or Antwerp
51%

Winning margin

Genk wins by 2+
26%
Antwerp wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Genk 1+ goals
81%
Genk 2+ goals
50%
Genk 3+ goals
24%
Antwerp 1+ goals
70%
Antwerp 2+ goals
34%
Antwerp 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Genk (draw refunded)
64%
Antwerp (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.07 · 25 matches

Antwerp away — creates 1.32, concedes 1.56 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk attack 1.79 + Antwerp defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.68

Antwerp attack 1.32 + Genk defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Genk scores more
49%
level
24%
Antwerp scores more
27%

Genk at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Genk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

91
S. LammensAntwerpAntwerp · G
8.3

Match Events

34'
Gyrano KerkPenalty confirmed
35'
T. CheryPenalty
37'
Joris Kayembe Ditu
37'
Tjaronn Chery
37'
Gyrano Kerk
56'
S. Renders← J. Bataille
64'
Oh Hyeon-Gyu← K. Karetsas
64'
Y. Medina← J. Kayembe
64'
N. Adedeji-Sternberg← C. Bonsu Baah
69'
J. Riedewald← M. Bayo
83'
K. Nkuba← Z. El Ouahdi
83'
Y. Sor← I. Bangoura
83'
A. Verstraeten← D. Praet
83'
K. Corbanie← M. Doumbia
83'
C. Scott← T. Chery

Possession

59%Genk

Shots

16Genk

Pass accuracy

51%Genk

Statistics

GenkAntwerp
Overview
59%Possession41%
16Total Shots10
1.87Expected Goals (xG)1.39
6Corners1
4Fouls10
Shots
16Total Shots10
5On Target3
8Off Target7
3Blocked0
12Inside Box5
4Outside Box5
Passing
59%Possession41%
529Total Passes379
452Accurate Passes306
85%Pass Accuracy81%
Goalkeeping
2Saves6
1.90Goals Prevented1.90
Discipline
4Fouls10
1Yellow Cards2
1Offsides2

Jupiler Pro League: Genk 0–1 Antwerp

Antwerp beat Genk 1-0 in Jupiler Pro League on April 27, 2025.

Goals: T. Chery (35' pen).

Genk controlled possession (59%) and registered 16 shots to 10.

The match was played at Cegeka Arena in Genk.