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Genk U19 vs Žilina U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Genk U19
Genk U19
CANC
14:00
Žilina U19
Žilina U19
3/3/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group StageB-Veld Racing Genk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Genk U1950%
×Draw22%
Žilina U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Genk U19
1.95
Žilina U19
1.40

Genk U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 6 away

creates per match

Genk U19
2.40
Žilina U19
1.50

allows per match

Genk U19
1.30
Žilina U19
1.50

finishing

Genk U19+0.00on par
Žilina U19+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk U19 ↓

Žilina U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Genk U19 or draw
72%
Genk U19 or Žilina U19
78%
Draw or Žilina U19
50%

Winning margin

Genk U19 wins by 2+
29%
Žilina U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Genk U19 1+ goals
86%
Genk U19 2+ goals
58%
Genk U19 3+ goals
31%
Žilina U19 1+ goals
75%
Žilina U19 2+ goals
41%
Žilina U19 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Genk U19 (draw refunded)
64%
Žilina U19 (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Žilina U19 away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk U19 attack 2.40 + Žilina U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.95

Žilina U19 attack 1.50 + Genk U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Genk U19 scores more
50%
level
22%
Žilina U19 scores more
28%

Genk U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Genk U19 host Žilina U19

March 3, 2021: Genk U19 take on Žilina U19 in UEFA Youth League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Genk U19 host Žilina U19 at B-Veld Racing Genk.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.