Genk U19 1–2 Jindřichův Hradec: Result & Stats

Genk U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Jindřichův Hradec

D. Cutillas-Carpe 86'

M. Zachoval 76' (pen)

M. Konečný 7'

9/14/2022

UEFA Youth League · 1st RoundB-Veld Racing Genk

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Genk U1964%

×Draw17%

Jindřichův Hradec18%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Genk U19Expected goals in this matchJindřichův Hradec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.70

1.40

Genk U19

2.70

Jindřichův Hradec

1.40

Genk U19 creates 93% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 4 away

2.40

creates per match

1.50

1.30

allows per match

3.00

creates per match

Genk U19

2.40

Jindřichův Hradec

1.50

allows per match

Genk U19

1.30

Jindřichův Hradec

3.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Genk U19+0.00on par

Jindřichův Hradec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Genk U19 ↓

Jindřichův Hradec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–18%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–04%

4–15%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Genk U19 or draw

82%

Genk U19 or Jindřichův Hradec

83%

Draw or Jindřichův Hradec

36%

Winning margin

Genk U19 wins by 2+

44%

Jindřichův Hradec wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Genk U19 1+ goals

93%

Genk U19 2+ goals

75%

Genk U19 3+ goals

50%

Jindřichův Hradec 1+ goals

75%

Jindřichův Hradec 2+ goals

41%

Jindřichův Hradec 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Genk U19 (draw refunded)

78%

Jindřichův Hradec (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Genk U19 at home — creates 2.40, concedes 1.30 · 10 matches

Jindřichův Hradec away — creates 1.50, concedes 3.00 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Genk U19 attack 2.40 + Jindřichův Hradec defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Jindřichův Hradec attack 1.50 + Genk U19 defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Genk U19 scores more

64%

level

17%

Jindřichův Hradec scores more

18%

Genk U19 at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Genk U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

11'

21'

25'

46'

55'

D. Cutillas Carpe

61'

R. Smekens← L. Michiels

66'

B. Ogungbayi← D. Toula

75'

J. Kongolo

75'

J. Kongolo

75'

S. Sakkali← T. Claes

76'

T. Jelínek← M. Zachoval

76'

M. ZachovalPenalty

81'

Z. Gueddar← D. Arabaci

84'

E. Piták← A. Pudil

84'

K. Pančev← E. Hunál

86'

D. Cutillas-Carpe

Genk

Jindřichův

1

Dvořák

12

Behenský

4

▼

Hunál

13

Beránek

6

⚽

Konečný

10

Planka

5

⚽

▼

Zachoval

22

▼

Trédl

7

▼

Pudil

11

Hájek

17

▼

1

2

5

3

4

8

10

▼

Claes

6

▼

Michiels

7

▼

Arabaci

9

⚽

Cutillas-

11

Nuozzi

Manager: S. Pocognoli

61'▲R. Smekens←▼L. Michiels

75'▲S. Sakkali←▼T. Claes

81'▲Z. Gueddar←▼D. Arabaci

Genk U19 substitutes

16Smekens17Sakkali18Gueddar26Stevens14Manguelle15Baskale12Bungi

Manager: M. Titěra

46'▲J. Lopatář←▼J. Trédl

66'▲B. Ogungbayi←▼D. Toula

76'▲T. Jelínek←▼M. Zachoval

84'▲E. Piták←▼A. Pudil

84'▲K. Pančev←▼E. Hunál

Jindřichův Hradec substitutes

8Lopatář20Ogungbayi9Jelínek16Piták2Pančev29Kolodziej15Fiker

Match Recap: Genk U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec

Jindřichův Hradec beat Genk U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 14, 2022.

Goals: M. Konečný (7'), M. Zachoval (76' pen), D. Cutillas-Carpe (86').

The match was played at B-Veld Racing Genk in Genk.

Genk U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Genk U19 vs Jindřichův Hradec