Barnsley 2–3 Notts County: Result & Stats

Barnsley

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 1

Notts County

10/21/2014

League One · Round 14Oakwell Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Barnsley49%

×Draw26%

Notts County25%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnsleyExpected goals in this matchNotts County

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.53

1.02

Barnsley

1.53

Notts County

1.02

Barnsley creates 50% more chances

Season form · 122 home / 8 away

1.68

creates per match

0.75

1.30

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Barnsley

1.68

Notts County

0.75

allows per match

Barnsley

1.30

Notts County

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnsley+0.00on par

Notts County+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnsley ↓

Notts County →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Barnsley or draw

75%

Barnsley or Notts County

74%

Draw or Notts County

51%

Winning margin

Barnsley wins by 2+

25%

Notts County wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Barnsley 1+ goals

78%

Barnsley 2+ goals

45%

Barnsley 3+ goals

20%

Notts County 1+ goals

64%

Notts County 2+ goals

27%

Notts County 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Barnsley (draw refunded)

66%

Notts County (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnsley at home — creates 1.68, concedes 1.30 · 122 matches

Notts County away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.38 · 8 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnsley attack 1.68 + Notts County defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.53

Notts County attack 0.75 + Barnsley defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Barnsley scores more

49%

level

26%

Notts County scores more

25%

Barnsley at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Barnsley will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.