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Génesis vs Lobos Upnfm — Liga Nacional 2018

Génesis
Génesis
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Lobos Upnfm
Lobos Upnfm
3/2/2026Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Clausura - 9Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Génesis47%
×Draw26%
Lobos Upnfm27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génesis
1.52
Lobos Upnfm
1.10

Génesis creates 38% more chances

Season form · 64 home / 150 away

creates per match

Génesis
1.20
Lobos Upnfm
0.99

allows per match

Génesis
1.22
Lobos Upnfm
1.84

finishing

Génesis+0.00on par
Lobos Upnfm+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génesis ↓

Lobos Upnfm →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Génesis or draw
73%
Génesis or Lobos Upnfm
74%
Draw or Lobos Upnfm
53%

Winning margin

Génesis wins by 2+
24%
Lobos Upnfm wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Génesis 1+ goals
78%
Génesis 2+ goals
45%
Génesis 3+ goals
20%
Lobos Upnfm 1+ goals
67%
Lobos Upnfm 2+ goals
30%
Lobos Upnfm 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Génesis (draw refunded)
63%
Lobos Upnfm (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génesis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

Lobos Upnfm away — creates 0.99, concedes 1.84 · 150 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génesis attack 1.20 + Lobos Upnfm defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.52

Lobos Upnfm attack 0.99 + Génesis defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Génesis scores more
47%
level
26%
Lobos Upnfm scores more
27%

Génesis at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Génesis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Génesis 0–2 Lobos Upnfm

Lobos Upnfm beat Génesis 2-0 in Liga Nacional on March 2, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova in La Paz.