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Génesis vs CD Marathon — Liga Nacional 2018

Génesis
Génesis
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
CD Marathon
CD Marathon
10/18/2025Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 15Estadio Carlos Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 64+ matches

Génesis37%
×Draw27%
CD Marathon35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génesis
1.25
CD Marathon
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 64 home / 163 away

creates per match

Génesis
1.20
CD Marathon
1.21

allows per match

Génesis
1.22
CD Marathon
1.31

finishing

Génesis+0.00on par
CD Marathon+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génesis ↓

CD Marathon →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
45%55%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Génesis or draw
65%
Génesis or CD Marathon
73%
Draw or CD Marathon
63%

Winning margin

Génesis wins by 2+
16%
CD Marathon wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Génesis 1+ goals
71%
Génesis 2+ goals
36%
Génesis 3+ goals
13%
CD Marathon 1+ goals
70%
CD Marathon 2+ goals
34%
CD Marathon 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Génesis (draw refunded)
51%
CD Marathon (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génesis at home — creates 1.20, concedes 1.22 · 64 matches

CD Marathon away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.31 · 163 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génesis attack 1.20 + CD Marathon defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.25

CD Marathon attack 1.21 + Génesis defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Génesis scores more
37%
level
27%
CD Marathon scores more
35%

Génesis at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Génesis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Nacional: Génesis 0–3 CD Marathon

CD Marathon beat Génesis 3-0 in Liga Nacional on October 18, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Carlos Miranda in Comayagua.