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Génération Foot vs Stade de Mbour — Ligue 1 2019

Génération Foot
Génération Foot
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Stade de Mbour
Stade de Mbour
2/25/2024Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 14Stade Lat Dior

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Génération Foot45%
×Draw32%
Stade de Mbour23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génération Foot
1.08
Stade de Mbour
0.68

Génération Foot creates 59% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

creates per match

Génération Foot
1.21
Stade de Mbour
0.70

allows per match

Génération Foot
0.66
Stade de Mbour
0.95

finishing

Génération Foot+0.00on par
Stade de Mbour+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Under
  • Under74
  • Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génération Foot ↓

Stade de Mbour →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–113%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–17%
2–22%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
26%74%3.5
10%90%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Génération Foot or draw
77%
Génération Foot or Stade de Mbour
68%
Draw or Stade de Mbour
55%

Winning margin

Génération Foot wins by 2+
18%
Stade de Mbour wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Génération Foot 1+ goals
66%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
29%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
10%
Stade de Mbour 1+ goals
49%
Stade de Mbour 2+ goals
15%
Stade de Mbour 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Génération Foot (draw refunded)
66%
Stade de Mbour (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génération Foot at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

Stade de Mbour away — creates 0.70, concedes 0.95 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génération Foot attack 1.21 + Stade de Mbour defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.08

Stade de Mbour attack 0.70 + Génération Foot defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Génération Foot scores more
45%
level
32%
Stade de Mbour scores more
23%

Génération Foot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Génération Foot vs Stade de Mbour

Génération Foot and Stade de Mbour drew 1-1 in Ligue 1 on February 25, 2024.

The match was played at Stade Lat Dior in Thiès.