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Génération Foot vs Niarry Tally — Ligue 1 2019

Génération Foot
Génération Foot
FT
1 – 2
Niarry Tally
Niarry Tally
12/21/2019Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 3Stade Djiby Diagne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Génération Foot51%
×Draw28%
Niarry Tally21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génération Foot
1.33
Niarry Tally
0.73

Génération Foot creates 82% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 20 away

creates per match

Génération Foot
1.21
Niarry Tally
0.80

allows per match

Génération Foot
0.66
Niarry Tally
1.45

finishing

Génération Foot+0.00on par
Niarry Tally+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génération Foot ↓

Niarry Tally →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Génération Foot or draw
79%
Génération Foot or Niarry Tally
72%
Draw or Niarry Tally
49%

Winning margin

Génération Foot wins by 2+
24%
Niarry Tally wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Génération Foot 1+ goals
74%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
38%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
15%
Niarry Tally 1+ goals
52%
Niarry Tally 2+ goals
17%
Niarry Tally 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Génération Foot (draw refunded)
71%
Niarry Tally (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génération Foot at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

Niarry Tally away — creates 0.80, concedes 1.45 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génération Foot attack 1.21 + Niarry Tally defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.33

Niarry Tally attack 0.80 + Génération Foot defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Génération Foot scores more
51%
level
28%
Niarry Tally scores more
21%

Génération Foot at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Génération Foot vs Niarry Tally

Niarry Tally beat Génération Foot 2-1 in Ligue 1 on December 21, 2019.

The match was played at Stade Djiby Diagne in Deni Biram Ndao.