Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Génération Foot vs Mbour Petite Côte — Ligue 1 2019

Génération Foot
Génération Foot
FT
2 – 1
Mbour Petite Côte
Mbour Petite Côte
6/20/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 21Stade Djiby Diagne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Génération Foot53%
×Draw30%
Mbour Petite Côte17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génération Foot
1.25
Mbour Petite Côte
0.57

Génération Foot creates 119% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 33 away

creates per match

Génération Foot
1.21
Mbour Petite Côte
0.48

allows per match

Génération Foot
0.66
Mbour Petite Côte
1.30

finishing

Génération Foot+0.00on par
Mbour Petite Côte+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génération Foot ↓

Mbour Petite Côte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–016%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
84%16%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Génération Foot or draw
83%
Génération Foot or Mbour Petite Côte
70%
Draw or Mbour Petite Côte
47%

Winning margin

Génération Foot wins by 2+
25%
Mbour Petite Côte wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Génération Foot 1+ goals
71%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
36%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
13%
Mbour Petite Côte 1+ goals
43%
Mbour Petite Côte 2+ goals
11%
Mbour Petite Côte 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Génération Foot (draw refunded)
76%
Mbour Petite Côte (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génération Foot at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

Mbour Petite Côte away — creates 0.48, concedes 1.30 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génération Foot attack 1.21 + Mbour Petite Côte defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.25

Mbour Petite Côte attack 0.48 + Génération Foot defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Génération Foot scores more
53%
level
30%
Mbour Petite Côte scores more
17%

Génération Foot at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ligue 1: Génération Foot 2–1 Mbour Petite Côte

Génération Foot beat Mbour Petite Côte 2-1 in Ligue 1 on June 20, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Djiby Diagne in Deni Biram Ndao.