Génération Foot 1–2 Diambars: Result & Stats

Génération Foot

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Diambars

12/30/2022

Ligue 1 · Round 11Stade Djiby Diagne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Génération Foot45%

×Draw29%

Diambars26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Génération FootExpected goals in this matchDiambars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

0.86

Génération Foot

1.23

Diambars

0.86

Génération Foot creates 43% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 60 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

0.66

allows per match

1.25

creates per match

Génération Foot

1.21

Diambars

1.07

allows per match

Génération Foot

0.66

Diambars

1.25

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Génération Foot+0.00on par

Diambars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génération Foot ↓

Diambars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Génération Foot or draw

74%

Génération Foot or Diambars

71%

Draw or Diambars

55%

Winning margin

Génération Foot wins by 2+

20%

Diambars wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Génération Foot 1+ goals

71%

Génération Foot 2+ goals

35%

Génération Foot 3+ goals

13%

Diambars 1+ goals

58%

Diambars 2+ goals

21%

Diambars 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Génération Foot (draw refunded)

63%

Diambars (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génération Foot at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

Diambars away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.25 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génération Foot attack 1.21 + Diambars defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.23

Diambars attack 1.07 + Génération Foot defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Génération Foot scores more

45%

level

29%

Diambars scores more

26%

Génération Foot at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff