Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Génération Foot vs CNEPS Excellence — Ligue 1 2019

Génération Foot
Génération Foot
FT
3 – 0
CNEPS Excellence
CNEPS Excellence
6/6/2021Ligue 1Ligue 1 · Round 19Stade Djiby Diagne

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Génération Foot55%
×Draw28%
CNEPS Excellence17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Génération Foot
1.35
CNEPS Excellence
0.61

Génération Foot creates 121% more chances

Season form · 89 home / 45 away

creates per match

Génération Foot
1.21
CNEPS Excellence
0.56

allows per match

Génération Foot
0.66
CNEPS Excellence
1.49

finishing

Génération Foot+0.00on par
CNEPS Excellence+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

66%No
  • No66
  • Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Génération Foot ↓

CNEPS Excellence →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–19%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Génération Foot or draw
83%
Génération Foot or CNEPS Excellence
72%
Draw or CNEPS Excellence
45%

Winning margin

Génération Foot wins by 2+
27%
CNEPS Excellence wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Génération Foot 1+ goals
74%
Génération Foot 2+ goals
39%
Génération Foot 3+ goals
15%
CNEPS Excellence 1+ goals
46%
CNEPS Excellence 2+ goals
13%
CNEPS Excellence 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Génération Foot (draw refunded)
77%
CNEPS Excellence (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Génération Foot at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.66 · 89 matches

CNEPS Excellence away — creates 0.56, concedes 1.49 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Génération Foot attack 1.21 + CNEPS Excellence defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.35

CNEPS Excellence attack 0.56 + Génération Foot defence 0.66 → ÷2 → 0.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Génération Foot scores more
55%
level
28%
CNEPS Excellence scores more
17%

Génération Foot at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Génération Foot will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Génération Foot vs CNEPS Excellence

Génération Foot beat CNEPS Excellence 3-0 in Ligue 1 on June 6, 2021.

The match was played at Stade Djiby Diagne in Deni Biram Ndao.