General Velásquez 1–2 Universidad de Chile

General Velásquez

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Universidad de Chile

6/19/2022

Copa Chile · 3rd RoundEstadio El Teniente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

General Velásquez18%

×Draw19%

Universidad de Chile63%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchUniversidad de Chile

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

2.30

General Velásquez

1.14

Universidad de Chile

2.30

Universidad de Chile creates 102% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 20 away

1.17

creates per match

2.60

2.00

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.17

Universidad de Chile

2.60

allows per match

General Velásquez

2.00

Universidad de Chile

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Universidad de Chile+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Universidad de Chile →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–17%

0–29%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

37%

General Velásquez or Universidad de Chile

81%

Draw or Universidad de Chile

82%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

7%

Universidad de Chile wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

68%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

32%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

11%

Universidad de Chile 1+ goals

90%

Universidad de Chile 2+ goals

67%

Universidad de Chile 3+ goals

40%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

22%

Universidad de Chile (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Universidad de Chile away — creates 2.60, concedes 1.10 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.17 + Universidad de Chile defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.14

Universidad de Chile attack 2.60 + General Velásquez defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

General Velásquez scores more

18%

level

19%

Universidad de Chile scores more

63%

Universidad de Chile at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Universidad de Chile will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Universidad de Chile

Universidad de Chile beat General Velásquez 2-1 in Copa Chile on June 19, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio El Teniente in Rancagua.

General Velásquez vs Universidad de Chile — Copa Chile 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Universidad de Chile