General Velásquez vs San Marcos de Arica — Segunda División 2020
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 11+ matches
General Velásquez40%
San Marcos de Arica31%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
General Velásquez creates 19% more chances
Season form · 77 home / 11 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under61
- Over39
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No55
- Yes45
One side may not score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
General Velásquez ↓
Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches
San Marcos de Arica away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 11 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
General Velásquez attack 1.43 + San Marcos de Arica defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21
San Marcos de Arica attack 1.00 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.02
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 40%?"
General Velásquez at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 40% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Fernández Vial
Lautaro de Buin
RecoletaGeneral Velásquez
Colchagua
Iberia
San Antonio Unido
Independiente
Colina
Concepción
Deportes Vallenar
Linares UnidoIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
General Velásquez host San Marcos de Arica on Sunday, 29 May 2022 at 19:30. The match is part of the Segunda División 2020/2021 season.
General Velásquez 1 – 0 San Marcos de Arica
General Velásquez beat San Marcos de Arica 1-0 in Segunda División on May 29, 2022.
Goals: J. Uribe (50').
The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Vicente in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.