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General Velásquez vs Rangers de Talca — Copa Chile 2019

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Rangers de Talca
Rangers de Talca
6/15/2021Copa ChileCopa Chile · 1st RoundEstadio Municipal de San Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

General Velásquez29%
×Draw23%
Rangers de Talca47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.33
Rangers de Talca
1.75

Rangers de Talca creates 32% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 14 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.17
Rangers de Talca
1.50

allows per match

General Velásquez
2.00
Rangers de Talca
1.50

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Rangers de Talca+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Rangers de Talca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
53%
General Velásquez or Rangers de Talca
77%
Draw or Rangers de Talca
71%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
13%
Rangers de Talca wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
74%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
38%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
15%
Rangers de Talca 1+ goals
83%
Rangers de Talca 2+ goals
52%
Rangers de Talca 3+ goals
25%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
38%
Rangers de Talca (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Rangers de Talca away — creates 1.50, concedes 1.50 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.17 + Rangers de Talca defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Rangers de Talca attack 1.50 + General Velásquez defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.75

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

General Velásquez scores more
29%
level
23%
Rangers de Talca scores more
47%

Rangers de Talca at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Rangers de Talca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Copa Chile: General Velásquez 0–1 Rangers de Talca

Rangers de Talca beat General Velásquez 1-0 in Copa Chile on June 15, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de San Vicente in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.