General Velásquez 2–0 Provincial Ovalle

General Velásquez

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Provincial Ovalle

C. Valenzuela 86', 52'

4/14/2024

Segunda División · Round 7Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

General Velásquez45%

×Draw28%

Provincial Ovalle27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchProvincial Ovalle

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

0.97

General Velásquez

1.34

Provincial Ovalle

0.97

General Velásquez creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 31 away

1.43

creates per match

0.90

1.03

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Provincial Ovalle

0.90

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Provincial Ovalle

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Provincial Ovalle+0.00on par

Total goals

Under59
Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Provincial Ovalle →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

41%59%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

73%

General Velásquez or Provincial Ovalle

72%

Draw or Provincial Ovalle

55%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

21%

Provincial Ovalle wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

74%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

39%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

15%

Provincial Ovalle 1+ goals

62%

Provincial Ovalle 2+ goals

25%

Provincial Ovalle 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

63%

Provincial Ovalle (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

33%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Provincial Ovalle away — creates 0.90, concedes 1.26 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Provincial Ovalle defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Provincial Ovalle attack 0.90 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

General Velásquez scores more

45%

level

28%

Provincial Ovalle scores more

27%

General Velásquez at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

B. Campos← C. Arriaza

46'

M. Carvajal← J. Tobar

52'

C. Valenzuela

62'

I. Pipistrelli← N. Aguirre

62'

K. Araya← B. Leiva

65'

N. Córdova← D. Pereira

69'

A. Valencia← B. Cortés

70'

C. Henríquez← J. Alegría

74'

J. P. Carrasco

82'

L. Velasco

86'

C. Valenzuela

90'

L. Fierro← C. Valenzuela

90'

C. Araya← J. Araya

90'

E. Navarrete← M. Ormeño

General

Provincial

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Valenzuel

▼

Arriaza

Manager: C. Bustamante

46'▲B. Campos←▼C. Arriaza

46'▲M. Carvajal←▼J. Tobar

65'▲N. Córdova←▼D. Pereira

70'▲C. Henríquez←▼J. Alegría

90'▲L. Fierro←▼C. Valenzuela

General Velásquez substitutes

CamposCarvajalCórdovaHenríquezFierroFredesFlores

Manager: L. Pérez Franco

62'▲I. Pipistrelli←▼N. Aguirre

62'▲K. Araya←▼B. Leiva

69'▲A. Valencia←▼B. Cortés

90'▲C. Araya←▼J. Araya

90'▲E. Navarrete←▼M. Ormeño

Provincial Ovalle substitutes

PipistrelliArayaValenciaArayaNavarreteOrellanaCortés

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle

General Velásquez beat Provincial Ovalle 2-0 in Segunda División on April 14, 2024.

Goals: C. Valenzuela (52', 86').

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.

General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle — Segunda División 2020

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Provincial Ovalle