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General Velásquez vs Fernández Vial — Segunda División 2020

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Fernández Vial
Fernández Vial
9/15/2024Segunda DivisiónSegunda División · Round 23Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

General Velásquez38%
×Draw28%
Fernández Vial34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.21
Fernández Vial
1.12

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 77 home / 38 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.43
Fernández Vial
1.21

allows per match

General Velásquez
1.03
Fernández Vial
1.00

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Fernández Vial+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Fernández Vial →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–111%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
66%
General Velásquez or Fernández Vial
72%
Draw or Fernández Vial
62%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
16%
Fernández Vial wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
70%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
34%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
12%
Fernández Vial 1+ goals
67%
Fernández Vial 2+ goals
31%
Fernández Vial 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
53%
Fernández Vial (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Fernández Vial away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.00 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Fernández Vial defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.21

Fernández Vial attack 1.21 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

General Velásquez scores more
38%
level
28%
Fernández Vial scores more
34%

General Velásquez at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Segunda División: General Velásquez 0–0 Fernández Vial

General Velásquez and Fernández Vial drew 0-0 in Segunda División on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.