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General Velásquez vs Curico Unido — Copa Chile 2019

General Velásquez
General Velásquez
FT
1 – 3
HT: 1 – 2
Curico Unido
Curico Unido
6/16/2024Copa ChileCopa Chile · Regional 8th finalsEstadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

General Velásquez32%
×Draw24%
Curico Unido44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Velásquez
1.42
Curico Unido
1.71

Curico Unido creates 20% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

General Velásquez
1.17
Curico Unido
1.42

allows per match

General Velásquez
2.00
Curico Unido
1.67

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par
Curico Unido+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Curico Unido →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw
56%
General Velásquez or Curico Unido
76%
Draw or Curico Unido
68%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+
15%
Curico Unido wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals
76%
General Velásquez 2+ goals
41%
General Velásquez 3+ goals
17%
Curico Unido 1+ goals
82%
Curico Unido 2+ goals
51%
Curico Unido 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)
42%
Curico Unido (draw refunded)
58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Curico Unido away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.67 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.17 + Curico Unido defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.42

Curico Unido attack 1.42 + General Velásquez defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

General Velásquez scores more
32%
level
24%
Curico Unido scores more
44%

Curico Unido at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Curico Unido will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Velásquez vs Curico Unido

Curico Unido beat General Velásquez 3-1 in Copa Chile on June 16, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Augusto Rodríguez in San Vicente de Tagua Tagua.