General Velásquez 2–0 Colchagua: Result & Stats

General Velásquez

FT

2 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Colchagua

M. Pérez 90+3'

J. Uribe 59'

6/1/2021

Segunda División · Round 1Estadio Municipal de San Vicente

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

General Velásquez46%

×Draw26%

Colchagua27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General VelásquezExpected goals in this matchColchagua

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.04

General Velásquez

1.44

Colchagua

1.04

General Velásquez creates 38% more chances

Season form · 77 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

1.04

1.03

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

General Velásquez

1.43

Colchagua

1.04

allows per match

General Velásquez

1.03

Colchagua

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Velásquez+0.00on par

Colchagua+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Velásquez ↓

Colchagua →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Velásquez or draw

73%

General Velásquez or Colchagua

74%

Draw or Colchagua

54%

Winning margin

General Velásquez wins by 2+

23%

Colchagua wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

General Velásquez 1+ goals

76%

General Velásquez 2+ goals

42%

General Velásquez 3+ goals

18%

Colchagua 1+ goals

65%

Colchagua 2+ goals

28%

Colchagua 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

General Velásquez (draw refunded)

63%

Colchagua (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Velásquez at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.03 · 77 matches

Colchagua away — creates 1.04, concedes 1.46 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Velásquez attack 1.43 + Colchagua defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Colchagua attack 1.04 + General Velásquez defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

General Velásquez scores more

46%

level

26%

Colchagua scores more

27%

General Velásquez at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "General Velásquez will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

57'

J. Uribe← M. Sandoval

59'

J. Uribe

64'

J. Arancibia← K. Gómez

71'

L. Araya

71'

L. Araya

75'

J. Tobar← E. Cossio

75'

R. Segovia← P. Troncoso

81'

I. Cataldo← M. Segura

81'

T. Pino← W. Cid

82'

O. Pozo Miranda

86'

M. Olea

86'

M. Olea

89'

J. González← C. Muñoz

90+3'

M. Pérez

General

Colchagua

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: M. Riffo

57'▲J. Uribe←▼M. Sandoval

75'▲J. Tobar←▼E. Cossio

75'▲R. Segovia←▼P. Troncoso

81'▲I. Cataldo←▼M. Segura

81'▲T. Pino←▼W. Cid

General Velásquez substitutes

UribeTobarSegoviaCataldoPino

Manager: F. Arrué

64'▲J. Arancibia←▼K. Gómez

89'▲J. González←▼C. Muñoz

Colchagua substitutes

ArancibiaGonzález