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General Diaz vs Sportivo Ameliano — Division Intermedia 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
0 – 2
Sportivo Ameliano
Sportivo Ameliano
9/18/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 29Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Diaz27%
×Draw28%
Sportivo Ameliano45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
0.94
Sportivo Ameliano
1.32

Sportivo Ameliano creates 40% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 17 away

creates per match

General Diaz
0.88
Sportivo Ameliano
1.24

allows per match

General Diaz
1.41
Sportivo Ameliano
1.00

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Sportivo Ameliano+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Sportivo Ameliano →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–114%
0–29%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
55%
General Diaz or Sportivo Ameliano
72%
Draw or Sportivo Ameliano
73%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
9%
Sportivo Ameliano wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
61%
General Diaz 2+ goals
24%
General Diaz 3+ goals
7%
Sportivo Ameliano 1+ goals
73%
Sportivo Ameliano 2+ goals
38%
Sportivo Ameliano 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
37%
Sportivo Ameliano (draw refunded)
63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Sportivo Ameliano away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.00 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 0.88 + Sportivo Ameliano defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.94

Sportivo Ameliano attack 1.24 + General Diaz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

General Diaz scores more
27%
level
28%
Sportivo Ameliano scores more
45%

Sportivo Ameliano at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Sportivo Ameliano will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Sportivo Ameliano

Sportivo Ameliano beat General Diaz 2-0 in Division Intermedia on September 18, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.