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General Diaz vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
0 – 2
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
5/3/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 5Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Diaz33%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Trinidad39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.11
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.23

Guaraní de Trinidad creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 32 away

creates per match

General Diaz
0.88
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

General Diaz
1.41
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
61%
General Diaz or Guaraní de Trinidad
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
67%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
13%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
67%
General Diaz 2+ goals
30%
General Diaz 3+ goals
10%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
71%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
35%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
46%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 0.88 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.11

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + General Diaz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

General Diaz scores more
33%
level
28%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
39%

Guaraní de Trinidad at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guaraní de Trinidad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Guaraní de Trinidad

Guaraní de Trinidad beat General Diaz 2-0 in Division Intermedia on May 3, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.