General Diaz 1–1 Guairena FC: Result & Stats

General Diaz

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Guairena FC

2/24/2020

Division Profesional - Apertura · Apertura - 6Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

General Diaz32%

×Draw27%

Guairena FC41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

General DiazExpected goals in this matchGuairena FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.15

1.33

General Diaz

1.15

Guairena FC

1.33

Guairena FC creates 16% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 42 away

1.00

creates per match

1.07

1.58

allows per match

1.29

creates per match

General Diaz

1.00

Guairena FC

1.07

allows per match

General Diaz

1.58

Guairena FC

1.29

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par

Guairena FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Guairena FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw

59%

General Diaz or Guairena FC

73%

Draw or Guairena FC

68%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+

13%

Guairena FC wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals

68%

General Diaz 2+ goals

32%

General Diaz 3+ goals

11%

Guairena FC 1+ goals

74%

Guairena FC 2+ goals

38%

Guairena FC 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)

44%

Guairena FC (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Guairena FC away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.29 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Guairena FC defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Guairena FC attack 1.07 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

General Diaz scores more

32%

level

27%

Guairena FC scores more

41%

Guairena FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guairena FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff