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General Diaz vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
1 – 1
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
7/11/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 17Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Diaz31%
×Draw28%
Fernando De La Mora41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.07
Fernando De La Mora
1.28

Fernando De La Mora creates 20% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 113 away

creates per match

General Diaz
0.88
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

General Diaz
1.41
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
59%
General Diaz or Fernando De La Mora
72%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
69%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
12%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
66%
General Diaz 2+ goals
29%
General Diaz 3+ goals
9%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
72%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
37%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
43%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 0.88 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.07

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + General Diaz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

General Diaz scores more
31%
level
28%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
41%

Fernando De La Mora at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Fernando De La Mora

General Diaz and Fernando De La Mora drew 1-1 in Division Intermedia on July 11, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.