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General Diaz vs Deportivo Santani — Division Intermedia 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
0 – 1
Deportivo Santani
Deportivo Santani
8/13/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 23Estadio General Adrián Jara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

General Diaz32%
×Draw28%
Deportivo Santani40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.10
Deportivo Santani
1.27

Deportivo Santani creates 15% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 85 away

creates per match

General Diaz
0.88
Deportivo Santani
1.13

allows per match

General Diaz
1.41
Deportivo Santani
1.33

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Deportivo Santani+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Deportivo Santani →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–112%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
60%
General Diaz or Deportivo Santani
72%
Draw or Deportivo Santani
68%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
13%
Deportivo Santani wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
67%
General Diaz 2+ goals
30%
General Diaz 3+ goals
10%
Deportivo Santani 1+ goals
72%
Deportivo Santani 2+ goals
36%
Deportivo Santani 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
44%
Deportivo Santani (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.41 · 17 matches

Deportivo Santani away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 85 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 0.88 + Deportivo Santani defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.10

Deportivo Santani attack 1.13 + General Diaz defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

General Diaz scores more
32%
level
28%
Deportivo Santani scores more
40%

Deportivo Santani at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Deportivo Santani will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs Deportivo Santani

Deportivo Santani beat General Diaz 1-0 in Division Intermedia on August 13, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara in Luque.