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General Diaz vs Club River Plate — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Club River Plate
Club River Plate
4/30/2019Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 19Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 31+ matches

General Diaz37%
×Draw27%
Club River Plate36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.24
Club River Plate
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 31 away

creates per match

General Diaz
1.00
Club River Plate
0.84

allows per match

General Diaz
1.58
Club River Plate
1.48

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
Club River Plate+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

Club River Plate →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
64%
General Diaz or Club River Plate
73%
Draw or Club River Plate
63%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
16%
Club River Plate wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
71%
General Diaz 2+ goals
35%
General Diaz 3+ goals
13%
Club River Plate 1+ goals
70%
Club River Plate 2+ goals
34%
Club River Plate 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
51%
Club River Plate (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

Club River Plate away — creates 0.84, concedes 1.48 · 31 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + Club River Plate defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.24

Club River Plate attack 0.84 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

General Diaz scores more
37%
level
27%
Club River Plate scores more
36%

General Diaz at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "General Diaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Profesional - Apertura: General Diaz 0–1 Club River Plate

Club River Plate beat General Diaz 1-0 in Division Profesional - Apertura on April 30, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque).