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General Diaz vs 3 de Febrero — Division Profesional - Apertura 2018

General Diaz
General Diaz
FT
3 – 2
HT: 0 – 0
3 de Febrero
3 de Febrero
5/31/2018Division Profesional - AperturaDivision Profesional - Apertura · Round 20Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

General Diaz42%
×Draw26%
3 de Febrero32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

General Diaz
1.46
3 de Febrero
1.25

General Diaz creates 17% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 11 away

creates per match

General Diaz
1.00
3 de Febrero
0.91

allows per match

General Diaz
1.58
3 de Febrero
1.91

finishing

General Diaz+0.00on par
3 de Febrero+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Over
  • Over51
  • Under49

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

General Diaz ↓

3 de Febrero →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
51%49%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

General Diaz or draw
68%
General Diaz or 3 de Febrero
74%
Draw or 3 de Febrero
58%

Winning margin

General Diaz wins by 2+
20%
3 de Febrero wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

General Diaz 1+ goals
77%
General Diaz 2+ goals
43%
General Diaz 3+ goals
18%
3 de Febrero 1+ goals
71%
3 de Febrero 2+ goals
36%
3 de Febrero 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

General Diaz (draw refunded)
56%
3 de Febrero (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

General Diaz at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.58 · 33 matches

3 de Febrero away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

General Diaz attack 1.00 + 3 de Febrero defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 1.46

3 de Febrero attack 0.91 + General Diaz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.25

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

General Diaz scores more
42%
level
26%
3 de Febrero scores more
32%

General Diaz at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "General Diaz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: General Diaz vs 3 de Febrero

General Diaz beat 3 de Febrero 3-2 in Division Profesional - Apertura on May 31, 2018.

The match was played at Estadio General Adrián Jara (Luque).